{"id":1943,"date":"2020-06-21T21:20:44","date_gmt":"2020-06-21T20:20:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/towncryyers.com\/?p=1943"},"modified":"2020-06-21T21:21:35","modified_gmt":"2020-06-21T20:21:35","slug":"xi-plays-tough-but-can-china-afford-to-make-an-enemy-of-india","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/towncryyers.com\/index.php\/2020\/06\/21\/xi-plays-tough-but-can-china-afford-to-make-an-enemy-of-india\/","title":{"rendered":"Xi Plays Tough, But Can China Afford To Make An Enemy Of India?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Emma Graham-Harrison<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The brutal ambush in the Himalayas is the latest aggressive move from Beijing by a nation battling crises on several fronts<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sandeep Kaur and her brother Prabhjot Singh lay flowers on the coffin of their father, Satnam Singh, who was killed in the fight in the Galwan Valley. Photograph: Narinder Nanu\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ambush set up by Chinese soldiers for an Indian patrol was medieval. In the high-altitude Himalayan no man\u2019s land claimed by both countries, their forces have agreed not to carry guns, to diminish the chance of the long-running territorial dispute flaring into open war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So the People\u2019s Liberation Army had dammed up mountain streams, which they unblocked as the Indian troops approached. The rush of water knocked many off their feet, and then the Chinese soldiers swept down, brandishing sticks encrusted with nails, Indian media reported.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The units fought hand to hand for hours; several Indians tumbled down the mountain to their death. When the battle was over, at least 20 Indian soldiers were dead, dozens more injured and several taken captive. China had losses too, although it has not revealed figures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A fragile consensus that had held for nearly half a century was also killed off. Before last week\u2019s battle, no soldier from either side had died in a border skirmish for 45 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China and India fought a war over the border in 1962, and clashed again in 1967, but both seemed keen to avoid incidents that could spiral towards another.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then there was Monday\u2019s ambush, which left two nuclear-armed nationalist strongmen \u2013 Indian prime minister Narendra Modi and Chinese president Xi Jinping \u2013 facing off over the bodies of their troops. It was a potentially explosive situation. Neither man\u2019s politics allows much room to look weak on issues of national sovereignty and territorial control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Saturday, China accused India of \u201cdeliberate provocation\u201d, and criticised its construction of infrastructure in the area. But India\u2019s construction has been well inside the territory it controls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The mountainside battle came after a steady build-up of Chinese forces and infrastructure, and an increase in reported patrols, around the line of actual control (LAC), the de facto border \u2013 an area that commanders know carries risks of escalation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis appears to be a far more concerted push on China\u2019s part to change the status quo,\u201d said Andrew Small, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund. He cautioned that information about the border areas was fragmentary, and mostly from Indian sources supplemented by satellite images, but said there was a clear picture of a growing Chinese presence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
India and China border<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe Chinese military has been hardening its position in multiple locations, not simply conducting patrols across the LAC but building infrastructure and maintaining an ongoing presence.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It also seems improbable that commanders on a contested frontier, where there had been serious brawls a month earlier, would plan such a deadly ambush without at least tacit approval from the highest levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet it is not an obvious time for Beijing to be stirring up trouble with its neighbour; the country is battling several crises. Its economy has been shattered by coronavirus. Relations with the United States are at one of their lowest points since diplomatic ties were re-established in the 1970s. Hong Kong is in revolt and Beijing\u2019s imposition of a security law there has provoked international outrage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chinese authorities have also launched a trade war with Australia over its demands for an investigation into the origins of Covid-19, and are in a stand-off with Canada over the extradition of a senior executive from the technology giant Huawei.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some analysts believe that aggression on the Indian border is a response to these domestic pressures, from a leader who has fumbled the economy and relations with a top trading partner desperate not to look weak on national sovereignty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI feel it\u2019s generally a response to the pressure Xi feels he is under,\u201d said Taylor Fravel, director of the security studies programme at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBecause of Covid and the criticism China faced internationally, the economic crisis at home, and the concomitant deterioration of China-US relations, [Beijing] has taken a tough stance on a number of sovereignty issues as a way of signalling that China will not be cowed.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Others see a more opportunistic aggression from a government which over the past decade has replaced a focus on economic priorities and global stability in its foreign policy with aggressive nationalism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

===burning xi image<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forced to choose between acceptance and escalation, no country has wanted to take on China. Comments from Modi on Friday suggested that he too was willing to pay a political price to avoid further escalation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He said in a televised statement that Chinese troops had not intruded across the country\u2019s borders, even though that directly contradicted his own foreign minister\u2019s previous position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cFrom the Chinese point of view, why not push forward?\u201d said June Dreyer, professor of political science at the University of Miami. China\u2019s economy is five times the size of India\u2019s, and its official defence budget $100bn (\u00a380bn) higher; the real difference is probably larger, she pointed out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But while protests in India\u2019s streets and threats to boycott Chinese goods are unlikely to have a major economic impact, and there is little threat of military action, Beijing may have underestimated the damage caused by this skirmish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOne of the things this crisis has taught us is that the Chinese understanding of India is quite poor and is often coloured by cognitive biases of all kinds,\u201d said Ashley Tellis, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and former senior adviser to the US state department.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The deaths, and the end of the tacit agreement to avoid fatalities, are likely to harden attitudes towards China, both in the general population and among politicians. And that could have long-term fallouts, both economically and diplomatically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI suspect China has lost another generation, in India, many of whom had seen China as an opportunity. Basically, now they will say we can\u2019t trust them,\u201d said Tanvi Madan, director of the India project at the Brookings Institution in Washington.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEven if there was already an internal debate, this has strengthened the hands of those who have called for a rethinking,\u201d she said. \u201cOne thing this will put an end to is the idea that economic interdependence is going to alleviate political strains.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally published on the Guardian<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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