The global impact of the coronavirus pandemic poses a fundamental question:\nis this one of those historic moments when the world changes permanently, when\nthe balance of political and economic power shifts decisively, and when, for most\npeople, in most countries, life is never quite the same again?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Put more simply, is this the end of the world as we know it? And, equally,\ncould the crisis mark a new beginning?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Genuinely pivotal global moments, watersheds or turning points (pick your\nown terminology) are actually quite rare. Yet if the premise is correct \u2013 that\nthere can be no return to the pre-Covid-19 era \u2013 then it poses many unsettling\nquestions about the nature of the change, and whether it will be for better or\nworse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For countless individuals and families, normal life has already been\nupended in previously unimaginable ways. But how will the pandemic influence\nthe future behaviour of nation states, governments and leaders \u2013 and their\noften dysfunctional relationships? Will they work together more closely, or\nwill this shared trauma further divide them?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Some analysts see grounds for optimism, for example in beneficial\nenvironmental effects in northern Italy and China. Countries hitherto at odds,\nsuch as Iran and the UAE, are cooperating, at least temporarily. In the\nPhilippines, the crisis prompted a ceasefire with Communist rebels. Global\ninterdependence and the importance of collective, multilateral approaches have\nbeen vividly underscored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But there is also a more pessimistic view, typified by Stephen Walt,\nprofessor of international relations at Harvard University. \u201cThe pandemic will\nstrengthen the state and reinforce nationalism. Governments of all types will\nadopt emergency measures to manage the crisis, and many will be loath to\nrelinquish these new powers when the crisis is over,\u201d he wrote in Foreign\nPolicy magazine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Walt continued: \u201cCovid-19 will also accelerate the shift in power and\ninfluence from west to east. The response in Europe and America has been slow\nand haphazard by comparison [with China, South Korea and Singapore], further\ntarnishing the aura of the western \u2018brand\u2019\u2026 We will see a further retreat from\nhyper-globalisation, as citizens look to national governments to protect them\nand as states and firms seek to reduce future vulnerabilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIn short, Covid-19 will create a world that is less open, less prosperous\nand less free.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Is Walt right? The cop-out answer is only time will tell. Yet the outcome\nis not preordained. The responses of everybody, from presidents and prime\nministers to ordinary citizens, to the myriad challenges and upheavals arising\nfrom the pandemic will help determine what happens next.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It\u2019s a chance to reset both global and personal landscapes. Notwithstanding\npresent feelings of powerlessness, there are choices to be made about what kind\nof future awaits. After Covid-19, everything could be up for grabs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Balance of power<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n After early blunders, China\u2019s government is working hard to turn Covid-19,\nfirst detected in Wuhan in November, into a national success story. It claims\ndraconian measures to suppress the disease have largely worked. Now, by\noffering assistance to Italy and other badly affected countries, China is\nreinforcing its credentials as a global leader. The virus has become a soft\npower tool to overtake its superpower rival, the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cA critical part of this narrative is Beijing\u2019s supposed success in\nbattling the virus. A steady stream of propaganda articles, tweets and public\nmessaging, in a wide variety of languages, touts China\u2019s achievements and\nhighlights the effectiveness of its model of domestic governance,\u201d wrote\ncommentators Kurt Campbell and Rush Doshi in Foreign Affairs magazine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In contrast, Donald Trump is struggling to dispel a widespread perception\nof gross incompetence. \u201cThe US government\u2019s pandemic leadership has been its\nown special brand of catastrophe\u2026. [It] has placed its own citizens in\nunnecessary peril, while sidelining itself from acting as a global crisis\nleader,\u201d wrote Mira Rapp-Hooper of the US Council on Foreign Relations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThis domestic and international governance crisis could change the nature\nof the international order in several ways \u2026. If the US remains absent without\nleave, China may take the crisis as an opportunity to start setting new rules\naccording to its own global governance vision,\u201d she continued.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Authoritarianism and democracy<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n China\u2019s challenge to US hegemony was already strengthening on many fronts\nbefore the Covid-19 crisis erupted. The pandemic may accelerate this shift. For\nUS-allied democracies that value open governance, civil rights and free speech,\nthis is a worrying prospect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The trend towards centralised, authoritarian rule evident in countries such\nas India, Brazil and Turkey, and typified by China and Russia, has coincided\nwith the rise of rightwing nationalist-populist governments and parties in\nEurope. Some are now following China\u2019s lead in attempting to weaponise the\nvirus for political ends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe pandemic unquestionably presents an era-defining challenge to public\nhealth and the global economy [but] its political consequences are less\nwell-understood,\u201d the independent monitor, International Crisis Group, warned\nlast week. \u201cUnscrupulous leaders may exploit the pandemic to advance their\nobjectives in ways that exacerbate domestic or international crises \u2013 cracking\ndown on dissent at home or escalating conflicts with rival states \u2013 on the\nassumption that they will get away with it while the world is otherwise\noccupied,\u201d the ICG said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n One example cited by the report was Vladimir Putin\u2019s recent attempt to\nindefinitely extend his presidency in Russia (although the virus has since\nforced him to postpone a vote that could have allowed him to stay in power\nuntil 2036). Another was a bid by Viktor Orb\u00e1n, Hungary\u2019s nationalist leader,\nto renew a state of emergency \u201cthat prescribes five-year prison sentences for\nthose disseminating false information or obstructing the state\u2019s crisis\nresponse.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Governments such as Egypt\u2019s have followed China\u2019s example in expelling\nforeign journalists, restricting media access and curtailing public discussion.\nLike Boris Johnson and many European leaders, Trump has also assumed emergency\npowers. From Bolivia, India, Sri Lanka and Iraq to the US, UK and France,\nelections have been postponed, parliaments suspended, and lockdowns and curfews\nimposed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Most people may support such measures in the short term. But what if the\ncrisis is protracted, with a \u201csecond wave\u201d running into next year? And what if\nthe new controls are not relaxed or withdrawn after it ends? This is what\nHarvard\u2019s Stephen Walt meant about the danger of \u201cless free\u201d post-pandemic\nsocieties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Globalisation and multilateralism<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Unprecedented government aid packages for businesses and workers, intended\nto mitigate the disease\u2019s economic and financial impact, have led some analysts\nto suggest \u201cthe state is back\u201d \u2013 and that the limits of the postwar neoliberal,\nfree market model have finally been reached.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What the crisis has shown, it is argued, is that when the challenge is\ntruly existential, only the state can offer holistic and equitable solutions. A\nnatural corollary is that the high-water mark of globalisation has arrived.\nThese are radical paradigm shifts. Will they endure?<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe pandemic could be the straw that breaks the camel\u2019s back of economic\nglobalisation,\u201d wrote Robin Niblett, director of the Chatham House thinktank.\nThe architecture of global economic governance established in the 20th century\nwas at risk, he warned, raising the prospect that political leaders may\n\u201cretreat into overt geopolitical competition\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For Robert Kaplan of the Eurasia Group, \u201ccoronavirus is the historical\nmarker between the first phase of globalisation and the second \u2026. Globalisation\n2.0 is about separating the globe into great-power blocs with their own\nburgeoning militaries and separate supply chains, about the rise of\nautocracies, and about social and class divides that have engendered nativism\nand populism \u2026. In sum, it is a story about new and re-emerging global\ndivisions.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n If that\u2019s true, few will mourn the passing of the globalisation era. And\nsupport for Kaplan\u2019s theory may be found in increased post-pandemic\nprotectionism if, as some predict, countries attempt to limit future exposure to\nglobal threats. The UN warned last week of worldwide food shortages caused by\nlack of workers, tougher immigration controls, sanctions and tariffs \u2013 and\ncalled for a new, more open approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The weakening of multilateral forums and institutions, evident before the\ncrisis, is another sign of a shrinking world. Trying to revive their collective\nclout, the wealthy G20 countries belatedly pledged last week to do \u201cwhatever it\ntakes\u201d to fight the virus. But it remains largely unclear what that entails in\npractice, and who will take the lead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Fragile world<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The pandemic and its aftermath could be a game-changer for poorer countries\nwith limited resources and means of recovery, and for refugees and people in\nconflict zones \u2013 but probably not in a good way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The ICG report is blunt: \u201cThe global outbreak has the potential to wreak\nhavoc in fragile states [and] trigger widespread unrest \u2026. If the disease\nspreads in densely packed urban centres, it may be virtually impossible to\ncontrol.\u201d This is precisely the fear stalking South Africa\u2019s townships right\nnow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The report said the dramatic global economic slowdown would disrupt trade\nflows and create unemployment in commodity-exporting poorer countries. \u201cIts implications\nare especially serious for those caught in the midst of conflict if, as seems\nlikely, the disease disrupts humanitarian aid flows, limits peace operations,\nand postpones diplomacy.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n War-afflicted Syrians, Afghans, Somalis, South Sudanese and Yemenis could\nbe especially badly affected. That\u2019s why the UN last week launched an appeal\nfor $2bn in humanitarian aid. Its secretary-general, Ant\u00f3nio Guterres, wants\ntrillions more in global financial stimulus to prevent \u201cmillions\u201d of deaths.\n\u201cCovid-19 is threatening the whole of humanity and the whole of humanity must\nfight back,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe pandemic is a powerful reminder of two things: the shared challenges\nof our global village, and the deep inequalities we must grapple with to fight\nthem,\u201d said David Miliband, who heads the International Rescue Committee.\n\u201cCoronavirus is not just a problem for rich countries. We are only as strong as\nour weakest health system.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Whether the international community heeds this and similar calls will be a\nkey test.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Resilience and paranoia<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The crisis has exposed an endemic lack of resilience, symbolised by\nchronically under-resourced healthcare systems in even better-off countries.\nThe decision of many governments to call in the armed forces to help with\nlogistics and manpower partly reflects fears that weakening social cohesion may\nlead to disorder on the streets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIf governments have to resort to using paramilitary or military forces to\nquell, for example, riots or attacks on property, societies could begin to\ndisintegrate. Thus the main, perhaps even the sole objective of economic policy\ntoday [rather than supporting financial markets] should be to prevent social\nbreakdown,\u201d wrote Branko Milanovi\u0107, a professor at the London School of\nEconomics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Yet, looked at differently, this kind of national mobilisation can be seen\nas a positive development rather than a threat to civil liberties \u2013 and as a\nmore beneficial use of military power. In Britain as elsewhere, the call to\narms has created new legions of NHS volunteers. This renewed sense of national\nsharing and identity is a much-needed antidote to the regressive nationalism of\nrecent years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cLooking ahead, governments will have to decide whether to support more\ncooperative approaches to handling the crisis, not only in global public health\nterms but also as a political and security challenge,\u201d the ICG said. \u201cAll\nleaders face pressure to focus on domestic priorities, and in particular to\nignore conflict risks in weak states \u2026. But there will be a day after.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n While there is concern the pandemic could deepen divisions between\ncountries and, for example, exacerbate anti-migrant sentiment, there is a\nfighting chance it will boost international cooperation, support for the UN,\nand a willingness to pursue dialogue rather than military and economic\nconfrontation. The future need not be a globally debilitating US-China fight\nfor supremacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Elisabeth Braw of the Royal United Services Institute warns of a moment of\nextreme geopolitical vulnerability. \u201cThe coronavirus is a perfect opportunity\nfor the west\u2019s adversaries to watch how countries cope \u2013 or don\u2019t cope \u2013 with a\nmajor crisis,\u201d she wrote. But John Ikenberry, professor of international\naffairs at Princeton University, is less fearful, pointing to the US-led\nrecovery after the 1930s Depression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Intensifying great power rivalry in a fractured, damaged, poorer world\nmight indeed be the future that awaits, Ikenberry suggested. But it was equally\npossible that, \u201cover the longer term, the democracies will come out of their\nshells to find a new type of pragmatic and protective internationalism\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In other words, after the nightmare, a fresh start.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Five events that changed the modern world<\/em><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The Versailles peace conference<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The 1919-20 conference that followed the first world war was a historic\nturning point. It marked the formal demise of the German, Russian and\nAustro-Hungarian empires, the advance of democratic, representative governance\nin Europe, and the start of what came to be known as the American or\ntransatlantic century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Great Depression<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The Great Depression, the biggest worldwide economic calamity of the 20th\ncentury, began in the US in 1929 after the Wall Street crash. In the ensuing\nthree years, global GDP fell by about 15% (compared with under 1% in the\n2008-09 Great Recession). Things did not really pick up again until the second\nworld war \u2013 a drastic remedy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The battle of Stalingrad<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Fought on the banks of the Volga in southern Russia in 1942-43, the close\nto seven-month battle, the biggest in history, proved to be a pivotal moment in\nthe second world war in Europe. For the first time, Hitler\u2019s armies were halted\nand beaten, and the myth of German invincibility destroyed. About 2 million\ncombatants died.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The fall of the Berlin Wall<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The peaceful fall in 1989 of the Berlin Wall, the actual and symbolic\ndividing line between the Soviet bloc and the west, in effect ended the\n44-year-long cold war. The ensuing implosion of the Soviet Union triggered the\ncollapse of Russian-backed regimes around the world, leading the US to proclaim\nitself the sole global superpower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The 9\/11 attacks<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The attacks launched by al-Qaida on New York and Washington DC in September\n2001 punctured American illusions of invulnerability and prompted George W Bush\nto declare a \u201cglobal war on terror\u201d. This led directly to the US invasions of\nAfghanistan and Iraq, and the ensuing expansion of anti-western jihadism\ntypified by Islamic State.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" By Simon Tisdall Covid-19 has intensified the rivalry between the US and China \u2013 but it has also strengthened international co-operation. Will nations be more united or divided, more \u2013 or less \u2013 free? 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